The ISM across Europe peaked in January-February 2018.

Since then Europe is facing an abrupt slowdown of its activity.

Germany is leading the pack and the latest numbers are adding to the bleak picture.

Recession is here and spreading.

The German PMI went below 50 in January.

And comments are not particularly optimistic:

“The survey’s measures of new orders and job creation worsened, with inflows of new business shown to have declined for the first time in over four years and employment growth easing to the slowest since December 2016.”

Which translates into:

Make no mistake, Europe is following Germany:

Which gives you:

At best, Europe economies are on a standstill but it looks like we are heading quickly into recession.

With the end of QE last month (only reinvestment of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased), LTRO ending next June (European Banking sector already under massive pressure), Brexit impact (specially for Germany’s exports), you can be sure that the ECB will be busy in the next few months.

I hope it helps,
Gregoire

 

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